BIG MARLEY’S UFC 226 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
There is a lot of cash to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. I will be going thicker than usual this week following the significant GPP prizes, and I will play less cash games than normal. Here is actually the first time we have observed a $30k top prize, therefore I believe it is well worth chasing if you’ve got the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling from this struggle against Brian Ortega, thus we are down to 11 fights and we ought to see a lot of ties with this card with the popular lineups. If you’re pursuing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a little different with your lineup so you can separate yourself from the rest of the area. With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy as well as my fade of this week.
Cash Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is way off from the gambling line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That is just too much line value to pass in cash games which makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this fight, he should be highly owned it won’t even hurt your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the highest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so perhaps consider avoiding the chalk there if you can. But with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of the week.
GPP drama of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a little weird because I literally just chose Paul Felder because my cash play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about ownership. If Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it will not hurt your lineup because only 10 percent of lineups did not have him and you only have to be top ~50% of the area to cash in money games. In GPPs, I am guessing Felder will probably be over 50% owned. When he loses, that is half of the area that’s dead without a chance at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just because of this mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned guy to set you at a far better place of a solo 1st place win and possibly hitting that $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anyone and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Can it shock you that much if Perry could KO him in this fight? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust play and that is Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog play of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this fight happened 5 years before, but now we get a evaporating Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can keep this battle standing for many the fight which will give him a big advantage. He’s also dangerous on the floor himself and if he’s taken I think he will have the ability to get back up if he isn’t able to acquire a entry of his very own. If Pettis can acquire a decision then I think he will pay his off DK cost and is going to be a fantastic underdog to utilize so you can conserve salary on your lineups. I may also find this fight ending from Pettis falling Chiesa using a body kick and if that happens he will likely be on the winning lineup if he can make it happen in round 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think that he wins the fight, but I do not find him paying that large price tag. He doesn’t fight at a heavy pace and he has not gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins as well as the floor is where he’ll have his main edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and in his wages this week I need at least 91 points from him to cover that much. I would rather pay up for the men higher priced compared to Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or even Miocic. I will have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of them, which makes him my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
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