BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 132 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This week, we have a Fight Pass card in Singapore. Because it is in Singapore, we have to wake up at 4:30am ET to watch it live. I’ve already set the alarm and that I will be up ready to sweat these early struggles. DraftKings doesn’t have many large tournaments this week so that I will personally be playing more cash games and less GPPs. I’ll still have 3 GPP lineups but a lot of my investment this week will probably be in money games. But, there is still money to be won so here are a Couple of plays I like and my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Stack, Leon Edwards ($8,600) AND Donald Cerrone ($7,600)
Donald”Cowboy” Cerrone is not in a boring fight. Whether he wins or loses, his fights generally score high as a whole and also the winner nearly always pays off their price tag in DraftKings. I usually look for 100 total points if I stack a struggle in cash and I think with this being a possible 5-rounds, it should assess well more than that. Should Edwards win this fight, it’s likely an early KO, and if this happens he will score quite large. If Cerrone wins, then he can lock up a submission or a knockout which will easily 10x his price tag of $7.6k. But in any event, you have the winner in your lineup and the ensured 30-90 win bonus points should you stack. I think this fight is going to be fun as long as it continues and there should be a good number of points added up until one of these two get finished. If this does go 5 rounds, then these two should nevertheless get over 100 total points with the speed Cowboy brings to the table.
GPP play of this week — Li Jingliang ($9,200)
Li Jingliang constantly puts on a series when he measures in the Octagon. He is a quick pace fighter that scores very well on DraftKings when he wins. I believe he should be the better fighter wherever this fight ends up against Abe. I also believe he could finish this battle on the feet or the ground and if this happens he would very likely pay off his high price tag of $9.2k. He’s the 3rd most expensive fighter on the card and I believe he’s the maximum ceiling. That’s what we desire in GPPs is a ceiling, so that is why Jingliang is my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of the week — Song Yadong ($7,900)
Song Yadong is my favourite DraftKings”underdog” this week. His betting line has shifted to him being a small favorite at -120 however he’s $400 cheaper than his competitor. I believe saving that $400 is a good transfer in cash or GPP games so that I like Yadong in most formats. I think Yadong will seem to maintain this battle on the feet and hunt for that KO win. If he does get the win, I believe he should easily pay off that cost and receive at least 10x.
Fade of this week — Viviane Pereira ($8,800)
My primary issue with Pereira is that she’s too pricey. At $8.8k, I need at least 88 points out of her and I think she desires get an end to perform that. I really don’t see that happening and does Vegas with a +617 ITD line. She doesn’t strike at a high enough pace or territory sufficient takedowns to score 88 points in my opinion. In her two UFC wins she held her competitor against the fence for a good portion of the struggle and no points have been scored when that happens. If she does that again here, there is no way she comes near 88 points even with a win. I will have a full fade on Pereira this week and that I will compensate for other favorites instead.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on each struggle, my personal strategies & suggestions, and also my selection prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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