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NASCAR Betting by the Numbers: Homestead-Miami Championship Predictions & Picks

Together with the 2018 NASCAR season coming to an end this weekend at Homestead-Miami, race fans will have their final opportunity to make a little extra cash for the next 3 months. Not only is the race sure to become an exciting one, the 2018 NASCAR Champion will be crowned. This means, NASCAR fans have the joy of two distinct major betting opportunities to take advantage of.

While Vegas has introduced their odds for each driver to win the Ford EcoBoost 400 in Homestead-Miami, I have compiled data that shows slightly different outcomes. By opting to ignore past year’s performances in this course and rather focus on season finish averages based on 1.5 mile trail performances, I have produced a list of drivers that are most likely to win this weekend. This list also enables us to evaluate each motorist’s betting return according to their own Vegas odds.

Vegas Odds
Kevin Harvick: 11/4
Kyle Busch: 11/4
Kyle Larson: 3/1
Martin Truex Jr.: 6/1
Joey Logano: 10/1
Brad Keselowski: 15/1
Chase Elliott: 20/1
Denny Hamlin: 20/1
Clint Bowyer: 25/1
Kurt Busch: 25/1
Eric Jones: 30/1
Aric Almirola: 40/1
Ryan Blaney: 40/1
Austin Dillon: 80/1
Jimmie Johnson: 80/1
Daniel Su??rez: 100/1
1.5 Mile Finish Averages
Kyle Busch: 5.4 (2) ^1
Joey Logano: 7.25 (5) ^3
Martin Truex Jr.: 8.9 (4) ^1
Kevin Harvick: 9.3 (1) v3
Kyle Larson: 9.6 (3) v2
Brad Keselowski: 9.7 (6) —
Austin Dillon: 10.4 (14) ^7
Eric Jones: 10.6 (11) ^3
Aric Almirola: 12.6 (12) ^3
Ryan Blaney: 12.7 (13) ^3
Clint Bowyer: 13 (9) v2
Kurt Busch: 13 (10) v2
Chase Elliott: 13.9 (7) v6
Denny Hamlin: 14.8 (8) v6
Jimmie Johnson: 17.6 (15) —
Daniel Su??rez: 19.25 (16) —

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