UFC FN145 Betting Tips & Plays
Jan Blachowicz Breakdown:
Both guys come into this fight on career highs. Santos has looked unstoppable since going up to light heavyweight, whilst Blachowicz now rides a dominant four fight win streak. This matchup however appears to favour Blachowicz in several ways. Durability and cardio will be a big factor and there a few more demanding than Blachowicz. Santos throws everything with full power and is based on finishing competitions. In a five round fight this approach is a risky one that is going to backfire in the subsequent rounds. Blachowicz brings stopping power of his own but conserves cardio to get a more consistent outcome. On the feet both men can get their moments, but the precise jab of Blachowicz is very likely to cause Santos problems. His boxing is reckless yet crazy and also a straight jab is one of the best counters to looping hooks. The biggest advantage goes to Blachowicz around the ground. As Santos tires the takedowns will be open and Santos has historically struggled in the grappling department. The BJJ black-belt skills must find Blachowicz a finish once the opportunity presents.
Bet = Blachowicz at 2.00 (+100) odds. Risk 3 Units to acquire 3.0 Units.
Damir Ismagulov Breakdown:
Ismagulov welcomes the UFC newcomer in what should be a one sided affair. On the feet Ismagulov is fast with his in and out striking. Defensively he averts trouble whilst throwing some gaudy strikes to keep opponents guessing. Alvarez appears thinner on the toes with a riskier design. He keeps his hands but does throw competitive combinations. The significant differential lies at the grappling department. Alvarez hasn’t shown good takedown defense on the regional scene and relies on high hazard admissions off his spine. This strategy succeeds. Look for Ismagulov to push his edge standing and search for trips and takedowns to the mat where he favours top and control position via ground and pound.
Bet = Ismagulov in 1.34 (-290) odds. Risk 5 Units to win 1.70 Units.
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